Statistical Initiatives

The most important initiative is The Program of Statistics Development of the Kyrgyz Republic for the period of 2001-2005. It is an official document of the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic which presents the information on policy of the whole statistical works of the Republic during next coming five years. The program is a sequel of the second phase of national statistics development and was elaborated with a view to further develop strategic management in statistics based on principles of independence and timeliness, meeting requirements of wide range of users and corresponding to international standards. 

The main objective of the program is to ensure comprehensive development of statistical informational system on the basis of further regional structure strengthening, introduction to methods of sampling surveys and use of modern information techniques of data collection, processing and data exchange both in regional and international levels.

Goals and objectives of the program:

• further state statistics development;
• determination of the main directions of statistics development;
• determination of the main activities targeted to the implementation of the program on short-term, middle-term basis for the period of 2001-2003, and long-term basis till 2005.

In spite of development of initiatives on national level it is necessary to develop partnership with international community. In view of this National Statistical Committee participates actively in international cooperation in the field of statistics with UN Statistical Offices and its regional economic commissions, International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, European Union, Department for International Cooperation, United Kingdom, Consortium PARIS 21 (PARtnership in Statistics for Development in the 21st Century), Organization of Economic Cooperation (OEC), as well as with national statistical offices of some foreign countries – Federal Statistical Office of Switzerland, Central Bureau of Statistics of Sweden, Statistics of Lithuania.

Partnership and cooperation with International Organizations

UN Population Fund and FSO of Switzerland

Cooperation with UN Population Fund is implemented within the framework of Cooperation with UN Population Fund is implemented within the framework of component project “Strengthening of the national capacity in data collection and analyses, research conduct and database improvement for comprehensive population development planning”:

• Support to regional statistical offices;
• Production of the first CD with main results of population census of 1999;
• Conduct research on demographic safety;
• Preparation and publication of the monograph on population of Kyrgyzstan;
• Upgrading libraries and provision of software to regional statistical offices.

International Monetary Fund

IMF support in the field of methodology of macroeconomic statistics. In collaboration with IMF advisor there were developed the Statistical Indicators System and other documents, which expedite the high level of statistical information dissemination.

Since February 2001 the Kyrgyz Republic participates in General Data Dissemination Standard (GDDS) of IMF.

The World Bank

The letter-agreement with the World Bank on offering the grant in an amount not exceeding 279,600 USD from the multi-donor Trust Fund for Statistical Capacity Building has been signed. The purpose of the Grant is to assist the National Statistical Committee to modernize the organizational structure of the statistical system and improve the link between the users of data and the NSC.

PARIS 21 (Partnership in Statistics for Development in the 21st Century)

Consortium PARIS21 (Partnerships in Statistics for Development in the 21st Century) has been established on the meeting in Paris from 18 to 19 November 199б where were invited a statisticians and policymakers of country-donors and country-partners with the purpose of activation of efforts for strengthening long-term statistical potential. This is original partnership of national, regional and international statisticians, policy-makers and statistical information users.

The aim of Consortium is to build up a synergism between Consortium’s activity and works on building the statistical capacity of agent-partners by the virtual program, stimulated by purposes of the PARIS21 and partnership principles.

European Union

The cooperation of National Statistical Committee with European Statistical Office is implemented according to the Article 67 “Cooperation in Statistics” of an Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, which was signed between the Kyrgyz Republic and the European Union.

On the basis of Eurostat recommendations there was developed a Programme of Statistics Development of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2001-2005. In the Programme there were defined a priorities of statistics development, arranged action plans, ways and methods of implementing set tasks.

Technical assistance by EU TACIS Programme is directed to reforming statistics in accordance with current changes in the country and international standards requirements.

The assistance is rendered by the following branches of statistics: business register, business statistics, external trade statistics, price statistics in construction, investment statistics, publication and dissemination of statistical information. The projects on business statistics, investment statistics, information technologies, regional structure, non-observed economy are being implemented.

Department for International Development (DfID) United Kingdom, “Statistical capacity building in support of the CDF/NSPR process” Project. 

The purpose of the project is to support the Government of Kyrgyzstan in its efforts to implement a successful poverty reduction strategy. In particular, the project aims to achieve this by supporting the National Statistical Committee (NSC) in further developing several key statistical instruments aimed at monitoring poverty, its causes and consequences.

UN FAO

The National Statistical Committee implements a project with UN FAO “Support to Agricultural Census and Statistics”. Within the framework of that project support was provided in publishing the results of the agricultural census, FAO experts provided their consultations and the software to process the census results was also provided.

The Uniform long-term program of statistics in Tajikistan.

The process for preparing the Multi-annual Integrated Statistical Programme (MISP) started in June 2004 with assistance of Alex Korns, the international consultant. Proposed tasks were based on IMF recommendations (ROSC), recommendations of other consultants (especially Aleksey Ponomarenko and Joseph Olenski) and wide consultation with subject matter units in the State statistical Committee of Tajikistan. Selection of priority tasks was largely based on the three goals specified in the Paris 21 framework - that is, macroeconomic monitoring, monitoring of poverty, and other data priorities in the framework of the IMF's General Data Dissemination System (GDDS).

The major strategic objectives for the MISP process is to upgrade State statistical Committee of Tajikistan methodological skills and automate its work across the board, while meeting the basic requirements for monitoring the macroeconomic situation and poverty, and the other major objectives of the GDDS.

The objectives will be reached by applying the following principles (corresponding to the UN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics):

• To make data available by improved, impartial dissemination
• To improve data reliability
• To ensure the practical relevance of statistical data
• To ensure transparency of methods
• To ensure confidential treatment of data

A higher-level vision for the statistical system can be formulated as: The system of official statistics in the Republic of Tajikistan shall contribute to the process of economic development and social and democratic reform by providing reliable and relevant information on the problems of society in support of fact based decisions.

The main priorities for the coming years are:

• To update and develop the IT infrastructure;
• To automate data capture and implement standard validation methods;
• To improve dissemination and user contact;
• To improve basic methodological skills, especially in sampling and seasonal adjustment;
• To improve the national accounts;
• To improve poverty data;
• To implement international systems of classification.

The development of official statistics in Tajikistan requires a fundamental effort to strengthen methodological skills, as well as to build up certain divisions that will play a leading role in collecting priority data - more specifically the divisions for national accounts, for the business registry, for prices and household incomes, for methodology and for economic analysis. Total staff in these divisions, which now number only around 20 persons, needs to be increased by at least another 20 persons.

The development of IT infrastructure and competencies is fundamental in order to improve efficiency. The computerization of regional offices opens up the opportunity that raw data from respondents can be entered into databases and validated in the rayon, instead of merely being summarized in 'svodi' for transmission to higher levels. The databases thus created can be adjusted for nonresponse (for the first time) and tabulated at State statistical Committee of Tajikistan with standard and ad-hoc queries. Tabulations can also be sent to the regions for sharing with local government.

A major upgrading of the IT infrastructure (hardware, software, and networking) is urgently needed, combined with increased skills in the use of IT tools throughout the organisation. This upgrading will support many of the specific statistical activities in the plan. It is also urgent to eliminate unnecessary work and automate the remaining work, to free up resources for new tasks.

The main subcomponents of improving policy, regulatory and institutional frameworks are:

1. Improving relationship with decisions makers/administrations;
2. Improving dissemination in general and obtaining more feedback from users;
3. Reallocating resources within State statistical Committee of Tajikistan;
4. Strengthening human resources development.

State statistical Committee of Tajikistan will work to give a wider range of users easy access to statistics, by improving publications and the web site.

The major actions in the field of statistical infrastructure development are concentrated on:

• Upgrading the national register of establishments;
• Implementing of international classifications;
• Learning skills in sampling;
• Learning skills in seasonal adjustment;
• Learning skills in evaluating and improving data quality.

Register use and data collection

The main source for the updating of the registry is the legal obligation to register with State statistical Committee of Tajikistan (among other agencies) when setting up a new enterprise or establishment. This registry should be the basis for the systematic monitoring of response and nonresponse for the system of annual, monthly and quarterly statistical surveys in the economic field. The business census will check on the activity status and the activity code of each unit, and add unregistered businesses.

Classifications

Harmonisation of national classifications with international standards is a requirement to ensure improved quality of the national statistics system and especially to provide comparability with international statistics. The national accounts division needs to receive data using the international classifications from other divisions in order to be able to process the data as required by SNA standards. State statistical Committee of Tajikistan will appoint a working group to supervise the implementation while acquiring related methodological skills by way of seminars and on the job training.

Sampling

During the project, State statistical Committee of Tajikistan will set up a working group to master sampling skills. Basic skills would be learned in training sessions with consultants, study tours, and on-the-job training.

Seasonal adjustment

Two visits by an international consultant are planned to introduce seasonal adjustment software and to train the working group in its use. The second visit would take place 12 or more months after the first, to enable the consultant to address problems raised by staff after a year of experience in the use of the program.

Data quality

The creation of databases in place of stepwise summaries will open new possibilities for evaluating and upgrading data quality in such ways as:

• Validation of the data during data entry.
• Nonresponse adjustment.
• Preparation of technical notes for each data series, describing methods and documenting quality issues like nonresponse adjustment.

Basic actions in MISP frame

System of National Accounts:

• To upgrade the annual accounts, with special attention to improved coordination with balance of payments data, commodity flow techniques, and improved estimation of expenditures in constant prices.
• To improve methodologies and estimations for the nonobserved economy, including illegal economic activity.
• To prepare time series on quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) with seasonal adjustments.
• Begin preparation of the country's first input-output table, a step that will only be feasible once State statistical Committee of Tajikistan has implemented international classifications for activities and commodities.
• Prepare a work plan for the creation of GDP measures at the oblast level, including a list of data requirements.

Price statistics:

• To improve the calculation of Consumer Price Index (CPI), by enlarging the basket of goods covered and by upgrading methodology.
• To improve the calculation of the Producer Price Index (PPI) by enlarging the basket of goods covered and by upgrading methodology.
• To use seasonal adjustment for selected components of both indexes.
• To prepare comparative measures of living costs under the International Comparisons Program (ICP).
• To prepare an index of agricultural prices.

Industrial statistics:

• To implement the Tajikistan adaptation of the NACE classification system for economic activities and a consistent system for commodities, which will serve as a basis for the development of the main indicators in Industrial Statistics.
• To improve monthly calculations of the Index of Industrial Production with value added weights, methodological upgrading, and seasonal adjustments.
• To implement on a sample basis surveys on small industrial enterprises, particularly informal producing simple commodities like bread and vegetable oil.

Investment and construction statistics:

• To investigate the widespread understatement of the value of construction activity and look for ways to measure it.
• To develop a workable index of construction costs.

Domestic trade statistics:

• To improve the statistical estimations of the volume of retail trade in the nonorganised trade sector.
• To survey expenditures by traders.
• To rationalize sample size for the semi-annual survey of retail trade in markets, which currently comprises 42,000 traders, or 10% of the population of traders in markets.
• To carry out a survey of energy use by establishments.

External trade statistics:

• To develop quarterly unit-price indexes for exports and imports and quarterly constant prices measures of imports and exports.
• To obtain more comprehensive data from the Customs Service, including data on the number of units imported where relevant (cars, planes, etc.), in addition to value and tons.

Statistics of transport, services and tourism:

• To carry out a survey of automobile owners to capture the informal provision of transportation services.
• To survey consumers of services to learn of their expenditures for services provided by the informal economy.
• To conduct a survey of tourist facilities.

Environment statistics:

• To establish a plan for developing environmental statistics based on the study of user requirements and existing methodologies and data sources.

Agriculture statistics:

• To carry out a sample survey of the 18,000 registered farmers.
• To improve the sample surveys on small unregistered producers in agriculture, especially by redesigning the sample, now excessively large (75,000), and by reviewing the questionnaire.
• To apply seasonal adjustments to quarterly and monthly production data.

Demographic statistics:

• To master the methodology for measuring infant and maternal mortality by way of household interviews, and to test out the chosen method in single rayon.
• To carry out a nationwide survey of infant and maternal mortality in a sample of rayon based on the method tested in the pilot.

2010 census of population:

• Develop a work plan for census preparations that takes account of new technologies especially for data capture and the production of census maps.
• Develop a specific plan for the IT side of the census.
• Provide equipment, software and training for the preparation of census maps using the Global Positioning System (GPS) and a Geographic Information System (GIS).
• Support the preparation of a full set of census maps.
• Provide equipment and training for experimental data entry by use of a scanner during the pilot census, to test feasibility for full census.
• Support the preparation of tabulation routines for producing tables for the country and for regions in a suitable program such as CS Pro.

Labour force statistics:

• To continue the Labour Force Survey (LFS) for the four quarters of 2005, as a follow up to the first such survey in 2004 (it is anticipated that routine Government funding would become available for continuing the survey after 2005).
• To establish a new sample for a permanent LFS.
• To use the data to analyse labour migration outside Tajikistan, and to prepare measurements of time spent in informal economic activity.

Social statistics:

• To propose a clear poverty line for the country and oblasts, based on a minimum nutrition basket.
• To upgrade the Household Budget Survey (HBS) sample and methodology in order to develop quarterly poverty measures consistent with international standards.
• To conduct a survey of affluent households for measuring the unobserved economy.
• To carry out a wider household survey in 2008 to obtain more comprehensive poverty data for the country and for small groups of rayon, within oblasts.

Education statistics:

• To adapt and implement the International Standard Classifier of Education (ISCED).

Health statistics:

• To develop and test a question for households concerning their access to clean water.
• To develop and test a question for households concerning women's access to reproductive health services.

Project on strengthening of the Tajikistan's National Statistical System

Among the important initiatives on strengthening of statistics system of Tajikistan are signing between the Government of Tajikistan and the World Bank the IDA- Financing Agreement and SIDA and DFID Grant Agreement for a project to strengthen the Tajikistan National Statistical System on June, 2006.

The major components of the project include:

• Organizational Development through improving policy, regulatory and institutional framework and organizational structure of the national statistical system;
• Human Resource Development through human resource management framework, training of statistical data producers to improve their technical skills including introduction of new standards, methodologies and managerial skills;
• Development of Statistical Infrastructure which includes improving sample frames, establishment and improvement of registers for enterprises and individual entrepreneurs, and developing a unified classification system;
• Data Development through upgrading data collection mechanisms -household surveys and censuses, sectoral statistics, including National Accounts, price statistics, and socio-demographic statistics;
• Physical Infrastructure and Equipment including improvement of IT structure, transportation and other equipment; and
• Project Management.

Statistical Initiative (SI)

Building Partnership for Cooperation with Users and Producers of Statistical Information

In response to the request and with the aim to support efforts of the Government of Uzbekistan in dealing with problems related to the production and dissemination of relevant and accurate economic indicators United Nations Development Program Country Office (UNDP CO) has initiated a new synergy initiative aimed at building partnership for cooperation with users and producers of statistical information. The direct beneficiaries will be the public and Government of Uzbekistan, represented by the SCS. Other government bodies such as Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Labor and Central Bank will also benefit from the project.

Four UN Agencies, including UNDP, UNICEF, UNFPA and WHO are involved in the SI, and therefore it is called a ‘joint initiative’. Furthermore, four UNDP-funded programs/projects, including Development Services Support Program (DSSP), Center for Economic and Social Studies (CESS), Digital Development Initiative (DDI) and Environmental Programme (EP) are actively participating in this initiative.

The key objective of this “joint project” is setting up a partnership for cooperation with central and local government, donor community, private sector and civil society in developing joint initiatives and programmes aimed at building confidence on official statistics and promoting transparency of methodologies as well as improving the technical skills of the specialists of statistical bodies of Uzbekistan.

Another crucial objective of the proposed synergy project is supporting the State Committee of Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics (SCS) in fulfillment of obligations assumed by the Government of Uzbekistan within the framework of Millennium Summit 2000 (including MDG).

The following three main immediate outputs are expected:

• Comprehensive assessment of needs of key users of statistical information, including private sector (with focus on SMEs), civil society, including mass media, donors, and the government institutions;
• Assessment of capacities and needs of government statistical agencies (central and regional) in data collection, processing and dissemination with a particular focus on poverty indicators, MDG and HD statistics;
• Designing of a Program Document in the area of improving the quality and access to statistical data and information.

To achieve the above-mentioned objectives it is proposed to conduct two interrelated studies. For these purposes a national (local) sociological institution will be designated to conduct survey to collect necessary information for assessment. Based on the results of the above-mentioned surveys two analytical reports will be prepared:

• Data needs assessment report;
• Institutional and human capacities assessment report.

A program formulation mission will use the above assessment reports at the end of the synergy project. Moreover, it is expected that the SI will assist the SCS in:

• harmonization of the statistical data sharing between government bodies that are responsible for respective statistics (the SCS, Customs Committee, Ministry of Internal Affairs, State Tax Committee and etc.) and other interested parties, including public and private sector;
• preparing and issuing of electronic version of main statistical publications and their dissemination through the SCS websites and introducing publicly available files (PAF) system;
• reviewing of existing publications and exploring the possibilities of increasing the volume and designing newly structured and unified style for the statistical publications;
• reviewing of existing website of the SCS and, if needed, designing a new operational website of the SCS in Uzbek, Russian and English languages and posting prepared electronic versions of publicly available statistical data and other related information.

Within the framework of UNDP Statistical Project Initiative and synergy UNDP, Development Gateway Foundation and World Bank "Uzbekistan Development Gateway" Project new website on socio-economic statistics of Uzbekistan (www.statistics.uz) has been officially launched on June 1, 2005. The main objective of the website is to provide on-line access to relevant periodically updated indicators of economic and social development of Uzbekistan in the context of Millennium Development Goals (MDG).

The website presents comprehensive picture of human development in Uzbekistan by using figures and facts, conduct comparison of current changes in Uzbekistan with the progress to be achieved within the framework of the national MDG, contribute to reduction of costs and enhancing the culture of obtaining socio-economic information, ensuring reliability of official statistics by providing open access through modern ICT.