Бахтиёр Эргашев
резюме
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Dear colleagues!
I want to invite you for participation in the discussion on very important, in my opinion, topic. More than 13 years have elapsed since the USSR collapsed.
During all these years the integration issue remains one of the most pressing.
Policy-makers, journalists, researchers have been discussing, talking and investigating the issue, but: the more attention is drawn to it the more obstacles such as closing of borders and complicated entrance procedures occurred. The existing organizations for integration are looking like reanimation patients.
The discussion is an attempt to answer easy, and at the same time, stirring questions:
1. What reason caused the failure of integration efforts in Central Asia in the post soviet era?
2. If the ways and mechanisms of integration process appropriate?
3. Similarities of the Central Asian countries economies have not play the role of a basis for consolidation. Is it possible now to integrate when economies and political systems has changed.
4. What type of integration do we need?
I would like to make my observations on the role, importance and potential of our region.
Community of the five Central Asian countries can be in full measure recognized as a region. This geographical space is shaped as by natural borders determined in topographical parameters, so with historical and cultural processes that are common for all countries of the region. The Central Asian region from the geopolitical point of view is formed with the five states amounting more than 4 million square kilometers territory and 60 million people population; with enormous stocks of oil, gas, nonferrous metals, other valuable mineral resources, vast irrigated lands and pastures.
The integrated Central Asia could become one of the fastest developing regions in the territory of the former Soviet Union. Similar issues in economies and policies, and traditionally established industrial and social ties create real prerequisites for close cooperation, significant reduction of transition costs and elimination of difficulties caused with a market transformation process.
However, it is evident that the common religion and history, and related languages could serve as a basis for cultural cooperation only, but not for political one. And failure of the regional integration is a glaring example.
What are the reasons?
There are a lot of factors, external and inside, that keep back the process of the Central Asian integration. They are:
1. Different models and inequality in pace of reforms in the countries of Central Asia;
2. Noticeable distinctions in the national legislations;
3. Not similar concepts of outward orientation;
4. Distinctions in priorities, interests of the national elites;
5. Rivalry of the countries' leaders;
6. The external influence factor;
7. Incompleteness of the interstate relations system.
Alongside with the mentioned factors, one of the main reasons of the Central Asian integration failure could be that official arrangements and agreements on interaction within the region didn't follow the evolutionary development of relations, they even forestalled them.
Being integrated, the governments preferred to relay on a strongly structured and officially supported relations and unions. And accordingly, integration institutions have been initially establishing as a kind of the formal bodies deprived of real filling.
They were some kind of <outstripping projects>. In our opinion, the contrary is correct: official establishment and registration of interrelations among the region countries should be performed when the relations become stronger.
Besides, success of integration depends on so-called locomotive countries (as France and Germany in EU). But neither Uzbekistan, nor Kazakhstan (as the two largest countries of the region) could not (or have not wanted) to play the role of the regional integration locomotive.
The unsuccessful Central Asian integration we evidence today, results in:
I. The process of decomposition and degradation of the countries disintegrated economies, which have the interconnected character.
II. Weakness of integration that threatens social stability of the Central Asian states;
III. Absence of the common policy in coordinating of problems that brings to strengthening of contradictions among the states.
At the same time, we recognize, that despite of the all ambiguity of the countries positions in regard to the regional integration, and alongside with huge problems in this process, there are significant factors, which serve as a basis for and promote the idea of the Central Asian integration. They are the following:
1. Common culture, religion, mentality and history;
2. Understanding the role of integration by peoples and the national elites;
3. Common strategic purposes (market economy, democracy, the secular state);
4. Prospective economic dividends from the global economic projects (in particular, construction of new and sharing of available transit highways and the objects of infrastructure);
5. Serious fears about the common threats.
Following the preconditions for regional integration, at present time development of new viable model is the main task. Integration has not worked in the past, because of too wide agreements were suggested as a basis. And now we need to elaborate and accept a new model based on the following top points:
- Cooperation on top issues (water, energy, environment, etc.);
- Development of new forms of cross-border cooperation between regions and areas; elimination of the government monopoly on initiation and realization of integration projects;
- Establishing of bilateral and multilateral agreements.
So, dear participants of the forum, let me invite you to express your view on the reasons that cause obstacles on the way of integration and contribute your suggestions on facilitating the process of integration in Central Asia. The discussion will continue through month and a half, and the basic conclusions and recommendations will be formulated basing on the summary of the discussion results. |
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